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Cruising World

aistqm

Robert C. Lindenberger
I just recieved this month's Cruising World Mag. That would be
April I think. Just past the article about Olin Stephens is an
article on how to evauate cruising boats. The person writing
the article used "Fussy Logic" to search for criteria which he
felt made the best cruiser. For all those interested, the
Brewer design M38 rated about sixed over all. It comparied
to vessels costing much more. If you don't subscribe, you may
want to pick up an issue.
 
<div>Jay's comment led me to read the article, which I had passed by. (It's in the April 1998 "Cruising World," pages 50-55.) The author, John Holtrop, chooses six variables by which sailboats are measured (maximum velocity, capsize risk, comfort factor, displacement-to-length ratio, sail-area-to-displacement ratio, and length overall [there are complex formulas for the first three]). He applies a technique whereby boats are evaluated according to how close they come to the presumed ideal for each factor. (The technique is called "Fuzzy Logic.") Of course, he had to choose the ideals and the acceptable ranges. For example, the ideal D/L was set at 280-320, with an allowable minimum of 230 and a maximum of 370. Not everyone would agree with those numbers. Many would think that the range and minimum are too high, but he argues that most highly regarded cruisers do in fact fall within the ideal ranges he sets. (He had help from another sailor-number-cruncher in choosing and setting the variables.) Beginning with a data base of over five hundred boats ranging from 22 to 50+ feet in length, Holtrop runs a computer program to generate what he calls each boat's Degree of Compatibility (DOC) score--that is, its compatibility with the ideal. He does this three times, the second and third time tightening the ideal ranges further.In the first go-round, the M-382 scores a perfect 1.00, along with nine other boats. (Holtrop apparently did not consider the M-383 or M-384 separately, as their scores would be extremely close or identical to the M-382's). In the second round, the M-382 scores a 0.99, sixth on the list but a tiny-little-wisker from tying for first with 1.00. Boats in the running but scoring considerably lower are the Crealock 37 (0.79), Cambria 40 (0.74), Morris 38 (0.74), and Island Packet 37 (0.62) -- all of which sell for many times the price of a Morgan 38. In the third round, the M-382 still holds the sixth spot with a score of 0.59, ahead of the Morris (0.23) and Crealock (0.07), while the Cambria and Island Packet have dropped to zero.
What's to make of all this? Well, if you accept John Holtrop's choices of variables and his evaluation of their ideal values--and you'll have to read the article yourself to do that--it sure looks like the Brewer-Morgan is a great cruising boat and one heck of good value! But we know that.
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<div>While reading that article, we decided to pump the Morgan's data into John's equations, - Well, that didn't work too well. So I e-mailed him ( at address in article) and he emailed me back the correct equations. Indeed only 2 of the 5 equations were correctly published in the article. If anyone wants the correct equations, either e-mail me or John. I used MS Excel to calculate the powers, etc. You can also use a scientific calculator to calculate the Powers and roots. Then, you can see where the Morgan 38 stackes up - Very interesting. Judy

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